CAN THE MIRACLE HAPPEN? - AT 8:17 A.M. ET:  Can Republicans win back the House next year?  Michael Barone, who probably knows more about American politics than any other mortal, looks at the evidence so far:

There’s starting to be some speculation that Republicans might recapture a majority in the House in 2010. That would require them to gain 40 seats—the exact number they needed to gain in 1994, the last time they recaptured a majority from the Democrats.

And...

Currently Real Clear Politics reports that Democrats lead Republicans by only 41%-39% in the generic ballot. But there’s a clear difference between the results shown by pollster Scott Rasmussen, who limits his surveys to those he determines to be likely voters, and other pollsters. Rasmussen currently shows Republicans leading 42%-38% and has had them ahead every week since the results he reported June 28—just about the time the House was passing the Waxman-Markey cap-and-trade bill by a 219-212 margin.

Interpreting the numbers:

Now comes political scientist Andrew Gelman, on the 538.com blog run by the Obama enthusiast and gifted numbers cruncher Nate Silver, saying that the generic polls suggest that Republicans could recapture a House majority in 2010. I have noticed that over the years generic vote questions have tended to understate the ultimate Republican percentage of the popular vote for the House.

But still, Barone is extremely cautious.  He notes that the anti-Obama trend we've seen could be reversed.  Also, most polls still show the Democrats ahead.  And, very critically, the Republican Party is, on its own, not popular.

Having said all that, I think the chances of the Republicans recapturing the House have to be rated now at well below 50%. But I think they’re not as negligible as I thought even a few weeks ago.

COMMENT:  Even if the GOP doesn't take back the House, the Dems could be so badly dented that the liberal wing of their party would find it impossible to govern.  The power could shift decisively to a coalition of Republicans and moderate Democrats, a combination that had a controlling interest from 1939 onward, for a number of decades.

September 24, 2009